The View from Silicon Valley: Quantum Computing and the Next Generation of International Arbitration

International arbitration stands at the threshold of another profound inflection point—one beyond artificial intelligence (“AI”). Even as practitioners and institutions grapple with the current and future implications of AI, a more fundamental shift is approaching: quantum computing. This emerging technology does not merely improve or accelerate analysis; it changes the nature of computing itself. For international arbitration—which routinely addresses technically complex, cross-border disputes involving high-value assets, sensitive data, and emerging technologies—quantum computing is poised to shape both the disputes that arise and the way they are resolved more fundamentally than AI.

Unlike AI, which improves how we use today’s computers, quantum computing changes what can be computed—reshaping business and law in ways that will reverberate through dispute resolution for decades. Quantum computing will affect international arbitration in two distinct but related ways. First, it will generate a growing volume of disputes arising from quantum-related investments, commercial and technology contracts, regulatory measures, and cybersecurity failures. Second, it will influence arbitral practice itself, including how evidence is protected, how expert testimony is evaluated, and how tribunals manage technically complex proceedings.

Consistent with this distinction, quantum technologies—unlike prior waves of legal technology, including AI—will not simply improve business efficiency. Quantum technologies will alter global industries in ways that will disrupt our current business models and generate entirely new businesses, ways of competing, and categories of disputes. Just one example, quantum computing is anticipated to defeat current encryption systems that underpin today’s cross-border commerce, confidentiality, and the protection of trade secrets. Encryption that stands against today’s supercomputers and would take billions of years to break may be compromised within hours by quantum computers. At the same time, quantum computing promises to transform fields such as pharmaceuticals, materials science, energy, defense, and finance by enabling modeling that today’s classical computers cannot perform at all. 

These shifts will change the strategic balances existing between nation-states and the commercial balances among global industries, and will drive new international disputes, including those over cybersecurity failures, intellectual property, government regulation, investment protections, and contractual performance, to arbitration.

Quantum computers are fundamentally different from today’s computers. Today’s so-called classical computers process information using electronically or magnetically stored bits that exist as either zero or one in a semiconductor. Quantum computers rely on qubits, atomic and subatomic particles, governed by the principles of quantum mechanics, including mind-boggling concepts such as superposition and entanglement. These properties allow quantum systems to evaluate vast numbers of possibilities simultaneously and to identify solutions to certain classes of problems that are computationally inaccessible to today’s classical computers. The significance for arbitration is not the physics, but the consequences: quantum computers can enable results that alter commercial expectations, risk allocation, and regulatory assumptions in ways that exceed existing contractual and legal frameworks. 

Quantum computers are difficult to build. Qubits are fragile, prone to error, and highly sensitive to environmental interference, and error correction remains one of the central engineering challenges. As a result, although commercial offerings exist, fully reliable quantum computers have not yet been built.  Nonetheless, progress, particularly over the past year, has been substantial. Quantum platforms using technologies such as superconducting circuits, neutral atoms, trapped ions, photonics, and quantum-dot technologies now operate at the scale of hundreds and, more recently, thousands of qubits. These systems are early-stage, and competing for success, but they mark a transition from laboratory experiments toward engineered platforms with commercial relevance.

Investment trends reflect this momentum. Governments worldwide have committed tens of billions of dollars to quantum initiatives, viewing quantum capability as strategically critical to national security and economic competitiveness. In the United States, federal funding under the National Quantum Initiative and related defense and research programs now exceeds USD 3 billion, with additional classified spending likely far higher. The EU’s Quantum Flagship program represents a commitment of approximately EUR 1 billion over ten years. China is widely estimated to be investing well in excess of USD 10 billion through national laboratories and large-scale infrastructure projects. Government investment is expected to increase dramatically as policy focus expands beyond AI. 

Venture capital investment continues to expand as well, supporting hardware developers, quantum software firms, post-quantum cybersecurity providers, and specialized supply chains. Although commercial deployment remains limited, early applications are emerging in chemistry, materials modeling, logistics optimization, and secure communications—industries that frequently generate cross-border contractual and regulatory disputes.

As quantum technologies move toward commercialization, legal activity is already increasing. University–industry collaborations raise complex issues of inventorship, ownership of intellectual property, publication rights, confidentiality, and export controls, particularly where multinational research teams are involved. Venture-backed companies face disputes over technical milestones, governance, valuation, and disclosure when scientific progress does not align with commercial expectations. Government contracts add further complexity through performance specifications, cybersecurity obligations, and national-security constraints, often with significant international dimensions. Measures taken by states to regulate or restrict quantum technologies on national-security or strategic grounds may also give rise to investor–state disputes, particularly where export controls, licensing regimes, or investment restrictions affect foreign investors.

Cybersecurity illustrates the disruptive potential of quantum technologies most clearly. Quantum computing threatens widely-used public key encryption that protects communication systems, financial transactions, and international dispute resolution, including arbitration submissions and evidence. Bad actors are already pursuing “harvest now, decrypt later” strategies, collecting encrypted data in anticipation of future quantum capabilities. In response, regulators in multiple jurisdictions are signaling expectations for migration to post-quantum cryptographic standards. Companies that fail to act reasonably may face claims for negligence, breach of confidentiality, regulatory noncompliance, and data-protection violations. Given the cross-border nature of data flows, many of these disputes are likely to be resolved through international arbitration.

Commercial contracting terms are also likely to evolve as parties implement quantum computing. Technology-related service contracts will increasingly incorporate quantum-specific performance metrics, representations, and risk-allocation mechanisms. Disputes will arise when early systems fail to meet ambitious benchmarks or when representations regarding capability, scalability, or readiness prove inaccurate.

Intellectual property disputes are likely to be especially prominent. Quantum innovation spans hardware, software, and networking systems. Disagreements over inventorship, improvement rights, licensing scope, and trade secrets are inevitable, particularly in collaborative and cross-border development environments. Supply-chain disputes will also increase because quantum hardware depends on highly specialized components subject to long lead times, geopolitical constraints, and export controls.

Quantum-related disputes will involve exceptional technical complexity, placing greater demands on international arbitration practitioners in managing complex evidence, working with technical experts, protecting confidential information, and navigating overlapping regulatory regimes. Practitioners with experience in advanced technologies and cross-border regulation will be increasingly advantaged. These developments are also likely to prompt arbitral institutions to revisit rules, protocols, and cybersecurity frameworks to address quantum-era risks, particularly with respect to data security, confidentiality, and the handling of sensitive technical evidence.

Quantum computing will raise significant questions concerning confidentiality and handling evidence and submissions. If future quantum systems undermine today’s encryption standards, practitioners, institutions, and tribunals will need to consider quantum-resilient security measures to protect submissions, deliberations, and awards. Export controls and national security restrictions may limit the movement of evidence or the participation of certain witnesses, influencing seat selection and procedural design. These challenges may also extend to questions of evidentiary integrity and authenticity, particularly as long-term digital records created under today’s encryption standards are assessed in a future quantum-enabled environment.

Quantum computing represents a generational development with direct implications for international arbitration. While its full commercial impact will unfold over time, the legal consequences of quantum computing are already emerging. As quantum technologies reshape global commerce, security, and regulation, international arbitration – with its flexibility, neutrality, and capacity to manage technically complex, cross-border disputes – is uniquely positioned to resolve disputes arising from this new era. Practitioners who engage with quantum computing developments will be best prepared to address the disputes that will define this next phase of global commerce.